Dundalk 0–1 Shamrock Rovers: Result & Stats

Dundalk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shamrock Rovers

10/27/2024

Premier Division · Round 35Oriel Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Dundalk36%

×Draw28%

Shamrock Rovers36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DundalkExpected goals in this matchShamrock Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

Dundalk

1.21

Shamrock Rovers

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 130 away

1.62

creates per match

1.41

1.01

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Dundalk

1.62

Shamrock Rovers

1.41

allows per match

Dundalk

1.01

Shamrock Rovers

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundalk+0.00on par

Shamrock Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundalk ↓

Shamrock Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dundalk or draw

64%

Dundalk or Shamrock Rovers

72%

Draw or Shamrock Rovers

64%

Winning margin

Dundalk wins by 2+

15%

Shamrock Rovers wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dundalk 1+ goals

70%

Dundalk 2+ goals

34%

Dundalk 3+ goals

12%

Shamrock Rovers 1+ goals

70%

Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals

34%

Shamrock Rovers 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dundalk (draw refunded)

50%

Shamrock Rovers (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundalk at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.01 · 111 matches

Shamrock Rovers away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.80 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundalk attack 1.62 + Shamrock Rovers defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.21

Shamrock Rovers attack 1.41 + Dundalk defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dundalk scores more

36%

level

28%

Shamrock Rovers scores more

36%

Dundalk at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Dundalk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff