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Shamrock Rovers II vs Wexford — First Division 2019

Shamrock Rovers II
Shamrock Rovers II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Wexford
Wexford
8/15/2020First DivisionFirst Division · Round 6Tallaght Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Shamrock Rovers II38%
×Draw24%
Wexford38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shamrock Rovers II
1.49
Wexford
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 119 away

creates per match

Shamrock Rovers II
1.22
Wexford
1.18

allows per match

Shamrock Rovers II
1.78
Wexford
1.76

finishing

Shamrock Rovers II+0.00on par
Wexford+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shamrock Rovers II ↓

Wexford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Shamrock Rovers II or draw
62%
Shamrock Rovers II or Wexford
76%
Draw or Wexford
62%

Winning margin

Shamrock Rovers II wins by 2+
18%
Wexford wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Shamrock Rovers II 1+ goals
77%
Shamrock Rovers II 2+ goals
44%
Shamrock Rovers II 3+ goals
19%
Wexford 1+ goals
77%
Wexford 2+ goals
43%
Wexford 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Shamrock Rovers II (draw refunded)
50%
Wexford (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shamrock Rovers II at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Wexford away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shamrock Rovers II attack 1.22 + Wexford defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.49

Wexford attack 1.18 + Shamrock Rovers II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shamrock Rovers II scores more
38%
level
24%
Wexford scores more
38%

Shamrock Rovers II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shamrock Rovers II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shamrock Rovers II vs Wexford

Shamrock Rovers II beat Wexford 2-0 in First Division on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Tallaght Stadium in Dublin.