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Shamrock Rovers II vs UCD — First Division 2019

Shamrock Rovers II
Shamrock Rovers II
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 4
UCD
UCD
9/26/2020First DivisionFirst Division · Round 14Tallaght Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Shamrock Rovers II29%
×Draw24%
UCD47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shamrock Rovers II
1.31
UCD
1.74

UCD creates 33% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 74 away

creates per match

Shamrock Rovers II
1.22
UCD
1.70

allows per match

Shamrock Rovers II
1.78
UCD
1.41

finishing

Shamrock Rovers II+0.00on par
UCD+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shamrock Rovers II ↓

UCD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Shamrock Rovers II or draw
53%
Shamrock Rovers II or UCD
76%
Draw or UCD
71%

Winning margin

Shamrock Rovers II wins by 2+
12%
UCD wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Shamrock Rovers II 1+ goals
73%
Shamrock Rovers II 2+ goals
38%
Shamrock Rovers II 3+ goals
14%
UCD 1+ goals
82%
UCD 2+ goals
52%
UCD 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Shamrock Rovers II (draw refunded)
38%
UCD (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shamrock Rovers II at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

UCD away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shamrock Rovers II attack 1.22 + UCD defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

UCD attack 1.70 + Shamrock Rovers II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shamrock Rovers II scores more
29%
level
24%
UCD scores more
47%

UCD at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "UCD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Shamrock Rovers II 2–5 UCD

UCD beat Shamrock Rovers II 5-2 in First Division on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Tallaght Stadium in Dublin.