Shamrock Rovers II 0–1 Cobh Ramblers

Shamrock Rovers II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cobh Ramblers

9/7/2020

First Division · Round 9Tallaght Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Shamrock Rovers II37%

×Draw25%

Cobh Ramblers39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shamrock Rovers IIExpected goals in this matchCobh Ramblers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.50

Shamrock Rovers II

1.46

Cobh Ramblers

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 120 away

1.22

creates per match

1.23

1.78

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Shamrock Rovers II

1.22

Cobh Ramblers

1.23

allows per match

Shamrock Rovers II

1.78

Cobh Ramblers

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shamrock Rovers II+0.00on par

Cobh Ramblers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shamrock Rovers II ↓

Cobh Ramblers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Shamrock Rovers II or draw

61%

Shamrock Rovers II or Cobh Ramblers

75%

Draw or Cobh Ramblers

63%

Winning margin

Shamrock Rovers II wins by 2+

17%

Cobh Ramblers wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Shamrock Rovers II 1+ goals

77%

Shamrock Rovers II 2+ goals

43%

Shamrock Rovers II 3+ goals

18%

Cobh Ramblers 1+ goals

78%

Cobh Ramblers 2+ goals

44%

Cobh Ramblers 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Shamrock Rovers II (draw refunded)

49%

Cobh Ramblers (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shamrock Rovers II at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Cobh Ramblers away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.71 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shamrock Rovers II attack 1.22 + Cobh Ramblers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cobh Ramblers attack 1.23 + Shamrock Rovers II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shamrock Rovers II scores more

37%

level

25%

Cobh Ramblers scores more

39%

Cobh Ramblers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cobh Ramblers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff