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Shamrock Rovers II vs Cabinteely — First Division 2019

Shamrock Rovers II
Shamrock Rovers II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Cabinteely
Cabinteely
9/18/2020First DivisionFirst Division · Round 12Tallaght Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Shamrock Rovers II33%
×Draw24%
Cabinteely43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shamrock Rovers II
1.36
Cabinteely
1.58

Cabinteely creates 16% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 36 away

creates per match

Shamrock Rovers II
1.22
Cabinteely
1.39

allows per match

Shamrock Rovers II
1.78
Cabinteely
1.50

finishing

Shamrock Rovers II+0.00on par
Cabinteely+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shamrock Rovers II ↓

Cabinteely →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Shamrock Rovers II or draw
57%
Shamrock Rovers II or Cabinteely
76%
Draw or Cabinteely
67%

Winning margin

Shamrock Rovers II wins by 2+
15%
Cabinteely wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Shamrock Rovers II 1+ goals
74%
Shamrock Rovers II 2+ goals
39%
Shamrock Rovers II 3+ goals
16%
Cabinteely 1+ goals
79%
Cabinteely 2+ goals
47%
Cabinteely 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Shamrock Rovers II (draw refunded)
44%
Cabinteely (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shamrock Rovers II at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Cabinteely away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shamrock Rovers II attack 1.22 + Cabinteely defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

Cabinteely attack 1.39 + Shamrock Rovers II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shamrock Rovers II scores more
33%
level
24%
Cabinteely scores more
43%

Cabinteely at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cabinteely will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shamrock Rovers II vs Cabinteely

Cabinteely beat Shamrock Rovers II 2-0 in First Division on September 18, 2020.

The match was played at Tallaght Stadium in Dublin.