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Shakhtyor Petrikov vs Volna — 1. Division 2018

Shakhtyor Petrikov
Shakhtyor Petrikov
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Volna
Volna
7/11/20211. Division1. Division · Round 13Stadyen FOK Prypiać

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov38%
×Draw24%
Volna38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.50
Volna
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 127 away

creates per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.48
Volna
1.29

allows per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.72
Volna
1.51

finishing

Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par
Volna+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtyor Petrikov ↓

Volna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Shakhtyor Petrikov or draw
62%
Shakhtyor Petrikov or Volna
76%
Draw or Volna
62%

Winning margin

Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+
18%
Volna wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals
78%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals
44%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals
19%
Volna 1+ goals
78%
Volna 2+ goals
44%
Volna 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)
50%
Volna (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtyor Petrikov at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.72 · 61 matches

Volna away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.51 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.48 + Volna defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Volna attack 1.29 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more
38%
level
24%
Volna scores more
38%

Shakhtyor Petrikov at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shakhtyor Petrikov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shakhtyor Petrikov vs Volna

Shakhtyor Petrikov beat Volna 1-0 in 1. Division on July 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadyen FOK Prypiać in Petryków.