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Shakhtyor Petrikov vs Torpedo BelAZ II — 1. Division 2018

Shakhtyor Petrikov
Shakhtyor Petrikov
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Torpedo BelAZ II
Torpedo BelAZ II
10/25/20241. Division1. Division · Round 30Stadyen Shakhtsyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov55%
×Draw21%
Torpedo BelAZ II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhtyor Petrikov
2.09
Torpedo BelAZ II
1.33

Shakhtyor Petrikov creates 57% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 17 away

creates per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.48
Torpedo BelAZ II
0.94

allows per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.72
Torpedo BelAZ II
2.71

finishing

Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par
Torpedo BelAZ II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtyor Petrikov ↓

Torpedo BelAZ II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Shakhtyor Petrikov or draw
76%
Shakhtyor Petrikov or Torpedo BelAZ II
79%
Draw or Torpedo BelAZ II
45%

Winning margin

Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+
33%
Torpedo BelAZ II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals
88%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals
62%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals
34%
Torpedo BelAZ II 1+ goals
74%
Torpedo BelAZ II 2+ goals
38%
Torpedo BelAZ II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)
69%
Torpedo BelAZ II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtyor Petrikov at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.72 · 61 matches

Torpedo BelAZ II away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.48 + Torpedo BelAZ II defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.09

Torpedo BelAZ II attack 0.94 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more
55%
level
21%
Torpedo BelAZ II scores more
24%

Shakhtyor Petrikov at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Shakhtyor Petrikov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shakhtyor Petrikov vs Torpedo BelAZ II

Shakhtyor Petrikov beat Torpedo BelAZ II 1-0 in 1. Division on October 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Shakhtsyor in Soligorsk.