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Shakhtyor Petrikov vs Smorgon — 1. Division 2018

Shakhtyor Petrikov
Shakhtyor Petrikov
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Smorgon
Smorgon
5/1/20221. Division1. Division · Round 4Stadyen FOK Prypiać

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov42%
×Draw24%
Smorgon34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.60
Smorgon
1.42

Shakhtyor Petrikov creates 13% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 60 away

creates per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.48
Smorgon
1.13

allows per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.72
Smorgon
1.72

finishing

Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par
Smorgon+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtyor Petrikov ↓

Smorgon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Shakhtyor Petrikov or draw
66%
Shakhtyor Petrikov or Smorgon
76%
Draw or Smorgon
58%

Winning margin

Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+
21%
Smorgon wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals
80%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals
47%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals
22%
Smorgon 1+ goals
76%
Smorgon 2+ goals
41%
Smorgon 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)
55%
Smorgon (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtyor Petrikov at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.72 · 61 matches

Smorgon away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.72 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.48 + Smorgon defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.60

Smorgon attack 1.13 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more
42%
level
24%
Smorgon scores more
34%

Shakhtyor Petrikov at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shakhtyor Petrikov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Shakhtyor Petrikov 4–0 Smorgon

Shakhtyor Petrikov beat Smorgon 4-0 in 1. Division on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadyen FOK Prypiać in Petryków.