Shakhtyor Petrikov 0–2 Niva: Result & Stats

Shakhtyor Petrikov

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Niva

D. Fedortsov 69'

P. Pampukha 11'

11/9/2024

1. Division · Round 32Stadyen Shakhtsyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov32%

×Draw23%

Niva46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhtyor PetrikovExpected goals in this matchNiva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.82

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.48

Niva

1.82

Niva creates 23% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 58 away

1.48

creates per match

1.93

1.72

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.48

Niva

1.93

allows per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.72

Niva

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par

Niva+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtyor Petrikov ↓

Niva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Shakhtyor Petrikov or draw

54%

Shakhtyor Petrikov or Niva

77%

Draw or Niva

68%

Winning margin

Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+

15%

Niva wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals

77%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals

43%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals

19%

Niva 1+ goals

84%

Niva 2+ goals

54%

Niva 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)

41%

Niva (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtyor Petrikov at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.72 · 61 matches

Niva away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.48 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.48 + Niva defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Niva attack 1.93 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more

32%

level

23%

Niva scores more

46%

Niva at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Niva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

P. Pampukha

19'

M. Tychko

41'

P. Dubovskiy

46'

S. Stefanovich← M. Bulanov

56'

V. Starostin

61'

A. Garost← A. Yarmolich

61'

A. Radin← D. Shulyak

69'

D. Fedortsov

73'

D. Selivanov← V. Prigodich

75'

D. Mulkevich← A. Kuratnik

87'

A. Fisyuk← V. Shcherbo

Shakhtyor

Niva

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Danilevich

46'▲S. Stefanovich←▼M. Bulanov

61'▲A. Garost←▼A. Yarmolich

61'▲A. Radin←▼D. Shulyak

73'▲D. Selivanov←▼V. Prigodich

Shakhtyor Petrikov substitutes

StefanovichGarostRadinSelivanovVarkulevichZylKorshunGurinovichPlaksa

Manager: A. Prokopyuk

75'▲D. Mulkevich←▼A. Kuratnik

87'▲A. Fisyuk←▼V. Shcherbo

Niva substitutes

MulkevichFisyukMeshchaninovBloshukChizhYushchenko

1. Division: Shakhtyor Petrikov 0–2 Niva

Niva beat Shakhtyor Petrikov 2-0 in 1. Division on November 9, 2024.

Goals: P. Pampukha (11'), D. Fedortsov (69').

The match was played at Stadyen Shakhtsyor in Soligorsk.

Shakhtyor Petrikov vs Niva — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Shakhtyor Petrikov 0–2 Niva