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Shakhtyor Petrikov vs FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk — 1. Division 2018

Shakhtyor Petrikov
Shakhtyor Petrikov
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
4/21/20241. Division1. Division · Round 3Stadyen FOK Prypiać

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov29%
×Draw23%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.30
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.75

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk creates 35% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 38 away

creates per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.48
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.79

allows per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.72
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.13

finishing

Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtyor Petrikov ↓

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Shakhtyor Petrikov or draw
52%
Shakhtyor Petrikov or FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
77%
Draw or FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
71%

Winning margin

Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+
12%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals
73%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals
37%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals
14%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 1+ goals
83%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 2+ goals
52%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)
37%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtyor Petrikov at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.72 · 61 matches

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.48 + FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.30

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk attack 1.79 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more
29%
level
23%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk scores more
48%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Shakhtyor Petrikov 0–0 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

Shakhtyor Petrikov and FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk drew 0-0 in 1. Division on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen FOK Prypiać in Petryków.