Shakhtyor Petrikov 1–3 FC Dnepr Mogilev

Shakhtyor Petrikov

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

FC Dnepr Mogilev

6/12/2021

1. Division · Round 9Stadyen FOK Prypiać

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov29%

×Draw23%

FC Dnepr Mogilev48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhtyor PetrikovExpected goals in this matchFC Dnepr Mogilev

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.77

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.32

FC Dnepr Mogilev

1.77

FC Dnepr Mogilev creates 34% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 49 away

1.48

creates per match

1.82

1.72

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.48

FC Dnepr Mogilev

1.82

allows per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.72

FC Dnepr Mogilev

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par

FC Dnepr Mogilev+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtyor Petrikov ↓

FC Dnepr Mogilev →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Shakhtyor Petrikov or draw

52%

Shakhtyor Petrikov or FC Dnepr Mogilev

77%

Draw or FC Dnepr Mogilev

71%

Winning margin

Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+

12%

FC Dnepr Mogilev wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals

73%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals

38%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals

15%

FC Dnepr Mogilev 1+ goals

83%

FC Dnepr Mogilev 2+ goals

53%

FC Dnepr Mogilev 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)

37%

FC Dnepr Mogilev (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtyor Petrikov at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.72 · 61 matches

FC Dnepr Mogilev away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.16 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.48 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 1.82 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more

29%

level

23%

FC Dnepr Mogilev scores more

48%

FC Dnepr Mogilev at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Dnepr Mogilev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff