Shakhter Soligorsk 1–0 Torpedo Minsk

Shakhter Soligorsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Torpedo Minsk

D. Laptev 73'

4/28/2018

Premier League · Round 5Stadyen Budaŭnik (Stroitel') (Salihorsk (Soligorsk))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Shakhter Soligorsk63%

×Draw23%

Torpedo Minsk14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhter SoligorskExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Minsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.67

Shakhter Soligorsk

1.73

Torpedo Minsk

0.67

Shakhter Soligorsk creates 158% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 24 away

1.79

creates per match

0.46

0.87

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Shakhter Soligorsk

1.79

Torpedo Minsk

0.46

allows per match

Shakhter Soligorsk

0.87

Torpedo Minsk

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhter Soligorsk+0.00on par

Torpedo Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhter Soligorsk ↓

Torpedo Minsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Shakhter Soligorsk or draw

86%

Shakhter Soligorsk or Torpedo Minsk

77%

Draw or Torpedo Minsk

37%

Winning margin

Shakhter Soligorsk wins by 2+

36%

Torpedo Minsk wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Shakhter Soligorsk 1+ goals

82%

Shakhter Soligorsk 2+ goals

52%

Shakhter Soligorsk 3+ goals

25%

Torpedo Minsk 1+ goals

49%

Torpedo Minsk 2+ goals

15%

Torpedo Minsk 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Shakhter Soligorsk (draw refunded)

82%

Torpedo Minsk (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhter Soligorsk at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.87 · 92 matches

Torpedo Minsk away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.67 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhter Soligorsk attack 1.79 + Torpedo Minsk defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Torpedo Minsk attack 0.46 + Shakhter Soligorsk defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Shakhter Soligorsk scores more

63%

level

23%

Torpedo Minsk scores more

14%

Shakhter Soligorsk at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Shakhter Soligorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

A. Filanovich← N. Patsko

67'

D. Laptev← T. Kiš

69'

S. Lynko← E. Morozov

73'

D. Laptev

80'

D. Tamelo← D. Yakubovich

90'

A. Selyava← L. Šimunović

Shakhter

Torpedo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Tashuev

67'▲D. Laptev←▼T. Kiš

90'▲A. Selyava←▼L. Šimunović

Shakhter Soligorsk substitutes

LaptevSelyavaKozlovNgomeRaspopovićChesnovskiySibomana

Manager: S. Kabelski

61'▲A. Filanovich←▼N. Patsko

69'▲S. Lynko←▼E. Morozov

80'▲D. Tamelo←▼D. Yakubovich

Torpedo Minsk substitutes

FilanovichLynkoTameloTsygankovSanetsPyatigoretsLovets