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Shakhter Soligorsk vs Smorgon — Premier League 2018

Shakhter Soligorsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Smorgon
Smorgon
D. Kovalevich 60'
N. Kaplenko 58' (pen)
10/6/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Stadyen Budaŭnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Shakhter Soligorsk65%
×Draw20%
Smorgon15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhter Soligorsk
2.06
Smorgon
0.88

Shakhter Soligorsk creates 134% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 58 away

creates per match

Shakhter Soligorsk
1.79
Smorgon
0.88

allows per match

Shakhter Soligorsk
0.87
Smorgon
2.34

finishing

Shakhter Soligorsk+0.00on par
Smorgon+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhter Soligorsk ↓

Smorgon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Shakhter Soligorsk or draw
85%
Shakhter Soligorsk or Smorgon
80%
Draw or Smorgon
35%

Winning margin

Shakhter Soligorsk wins by 2+
40%
Smorgon wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shakhter Soligorsk 1+ goals
87%
Shakhter Soligorsk 2+ goals
61%
Shakhter Soligorsk 3+ goals
34%
Smorgon 1+ goals
59%
Smorgon 2+ goals
22%
Smorgon 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Shakhter Soligorsk (draw refunded)
81%
Smorgon (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhter Soligorsk at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.87 · 92 matches

Smorgon away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.34 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhter Soligorsk attack 1.79 + Smorgon defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.06

Smorgon attack 0.88 + Shakhter Soligorsk defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Shakhter Soligorsk scores more
65%
level
20%
Smorgon scores more
15%

Shakhter Soligorsk at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Shakhter Soligorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
Denis Kovalevich
51'
Ilya Koval
58'
N. KaplenkoPenalty
60'
D. Kovalevich
67'
M. Gaevoy← P. Gorbach
73'
N. Nikolaevich← N. Korzun
84'
V. Kabyshev← M. Kovalevich
90+2'
A. Garost← D. Kovalevich

Statistics

ShakhterSmorgon
Overview
5Corners5
Discipline
1Yellow Cards1

Premier League: Shakhter Soligorsk 2–0 Smorgon

Shakhter Soligorsk beat Smorgon 2-0 in Premier League on October 6, 2023.

Goals: N. Kaplenko (58' pen), D. Kovalevich (60').

The match was played at Stadyen Budaŭnik in Soligorsk.