Shakhter Soligorsk 2–0 FC Vitebsk: Result & Stats

Shakhter Soligorsk

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Vitebsk

5/28/2022

Premier League · Round 10Stadyen Budaŭnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Shakhter Soligorsk54%

×Draw25%

FC Vitebsk21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhter SoligorskExpected goals in this matchFC Vitebsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.92

Shakhter Soligorsk

1.63

FC Vitebsk

0.92

Shakhter Soligorsk creates 77% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 114 away

1.81

creates per match

1.02

0.82

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Shakhter Soligorsk

1.81

FC Vitebsk

1.02

allows per match

Shakhter Soligorsk

0.82

FC Vitebsk

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhter Soligorsk+0.00on par

FC Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhter Soligorsk ↓

FC Vitebsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Shakhter Soligorsk or draw

79%

Shakhter Soligorsk or FC Vitebsk

75%

Draw or FC Vitebsk

46%

Winning margin

Shakhter Soligorsk wins by 2+

29%

FC Vitebsk wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Shakhter Soligorsk 1+ goals

80%

Shakhter Soligorsk 2+ goals

48%

Shakhter Soligorsk 3+ goals

22%

FC Vitebsk 1+ goals

60%

FC Vitebsk 2+ goals

23%

FC Vitebsk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shakhter Soligorsk (draw refunded)

72%

FC Vitebsk (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhter Soligorsk at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.82 · 103 matches

FC Vitebsk away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.44 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhter Soligorsk attack 1.81 + FC Vitebsk defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.63

FC Vitebsk attack 1.02 + Shakhter Soligorsk defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Shakhter Soligorsk scores more

54%

level

25%

FC Vitebsk scores more

21%

Shakhter Soligorsk at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Shakhter Soligorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff