Shakhter Karagandy 4–2 Zhetysu: Result & Stats

Shakhter Karagandy

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Zhetysu

7/30/2022

Cup · Group Stage - 3Stadion Shakhter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Shakhter Karagandy60%

×Draw19%

Zhetysu20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhter KaragandyExpected goals in this matchZhetysu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.29

Shakhter Karagandy

2.33

Zhetysu

1.29

Shakhter Karagandy creates 81% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

3.09

creates per match

0.75

1.82

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Shakhter Karagandy

3.09

Zhetysu

0.75

allows per match

Shakhter Karagandy

1.82

Zhetysu

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par

Zhetysu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhter Karagandy ↓

Zhetysu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Shakhter Karagandy or draw

80%

Shakhter Karagandy or Zhetysu

81%

Draw or Zhetysu

40%

Winning margin

Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+

38%

Zhetysu wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals

90%

Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals

67%

Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals

41%

Zhetysu 1+ goals

72%

Zhetysu 2+ goals

37%

Zhetysu 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)

75%

Zhetysu (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhter Karagandy at home — creates 3.09, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Zhetysu away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhter Karagandy attack 3.09 + Zhetysu defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.33

Zhetysu attack 0.75 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Shakhter Karagandy scores more

60%

level

19%

Zhetysu scores more

20%

Shakhter Karagandy at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Shakhter Karagandy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff