Shakhter Karagandy 1–0 FK Tobol Kostanay

Shakhter Karagandy

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FK Tobol Kostanay

5/19/2024

Premier League · Round 9Stadion Shakhter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Shakhter Karagandy36%

×Draw28%

FK Tobol Kostanay37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhter KaragandyExpected goals in this matchFK Tobol Kostanay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.19

Shakhter Karagandy

1.17

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 93 away

1.14

creates per match

1.27

1.11

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Shakhter Karagandy

1.14

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.27

allows per match

Shakhter Karagandy

1.11

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhter Karagandy ↓

FK Tobol Kostanay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Shakhter Karagandy or draw

63%

Shakhter Karagandy or FK Tobol Kostanay

72%

Draw or FK Tobol Kostanay

64%

Winning margin

Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+

15%

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals

69%

Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals

33%

Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals

11%

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals

70%

FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals

33%

FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)

49%

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhter Karagandy at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.11 · 71 matches

FK Tobol Kostanay away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.20 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhter Karagandy attack 1.14 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.27 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shakhter Karagandy scores more

36%

level

28%

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more

37%

FK Tobol Kostanay at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FK Tobol Kostanay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff