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Shakhter Karagandy vs FK Tobol Kostanay — Premier League 2026

Shakhter Karagandy
Shakhter Karagandy
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay
R. Murtazayev 81'
T. Dosmagambetov 62' (pen), 33' (pen)
M. Kovtalyuk 47'
A. Zhaksylykov 70'
5/2/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Stadion Shakhter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Shakhter Karagandy34%
×Draw28%
FK Tobol Kostanay38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhter Karagandy
1.17
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 92 away

creates per match

Shakhter Karagandy
1.07
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.32

allows per match

Shakhter Karagandy
1.19
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.26

finishing

Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par
FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 56Over: 4456%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhter Karagandy ↓

FK Tobol Kostanay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shakhter Karagandy or draw
62%
Shakhter Karagandy or FK Tobol Kostanay
72%
Draw or FK Tobol Kostanay
66%

Winning margin

Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+
14%
FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals
69%
Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals
33%
Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals
11%
FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals
71%
FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals
36%
FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)
47%
FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhter Karagandy at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.19 · 58 matches

FK Tobol Kostanay away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.26 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhter Karagandy attack 1.07 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.32 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shakhter Karagandy scores more
34%
level
28%
FK Tobol Kostanay scores more
38%

FK Tobol Kostanay at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FK Tobol Kostanay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
Žarko Tomašević
12'
Aleksa Amanović
21'
Ivan Sviridov
33'
Aleksa Amanović
33'
Aleksa Amanović
33'
T. DosmagambetovPenalty
47'
M. Kovtalyuk
52'
Zoran Tošić
55'
Stefan Bukorac
59'
Abylaikhan Nazymkhanov
62'
Askhat Tagybergen
62'
A. Zhaksylykov← I. Sergeev
62'
R. Požeg← Z. Tošić
62'
T. DosmagambetovPenalty
65'
A. Aduev← A. Nazymkhanov
65'
A. Tattybaev← E. Rustemović
65'
T. Zhangylyshbay← I. Sviridov
70'
A. Zhaksylykov
73'
Rúben Brígido
80'
R. Murtazayev← M. Kovtalyuk
81'
R. Murtazayev
85'
R. Asrankulov← V. Vasiljev
85'
Z. Zhumashev← Rúben Brígido
88'
A. Tiuliubay← T. Dosmagambetov

Statistics

ShakhterFK
Overview
5Corners3
Discipline
3Yellow Cards5

Premier League: Shakhter Karagandy 4–1 FK Tobol Kostanay

Shakhter Karagandy beat FK Tobol Kostanay 4-1 in Premier League on May 2, 2022.

Goals: T. Dosmagambetov (33' pen, 62' pen), M. Kovtalyuk (47'), A. Zhaksylykov (70'), R. Murtazayev (81').

The match was played at Stadion Shakhter in Karaganda.