Shakhter Karagandy 0–1 Aktobe: Result & Stats

Shakhter Karagandy

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Aktobe

A. Kenesov 49'

7/15/2023

Premier League · Round 15Stadion Shakhter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Shakhter Karagandy37%

×Draw27%

Aktobe37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhter KaragandyExpected goals in this matchAktobe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

Shakhter Karagandy

1.27

Aktobe

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 77 away

1.07

creates per match

1.35

1.19

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Shakhter Karagandy

1.07

Aktobe

1.35

allows per match

Shakhter Karagandy

1.19

Aktobe

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par

Aktobe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhter Karagandy ↓

Aktobe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Shakhter Karagandy or draw

63%

Shakhter Karagandy or Aktobe

73%

Draw or Aktobe

63%

Winning margin

Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+

16%

Aktobe wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals

72%

Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals

36%

Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals

14%

Aktobe 1+ goals

72%

Aktobe 2+ goals

36%

Aktobe 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)

50%

Aktobe (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhter Karagandy at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.19 · 58 matches

Aktobe away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhter Karagandy attack 1.07 + Aktobe defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Aktobe attack 1.35 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shakhter Karagandy scores more

37%

level

27%

Aktobe scores more

37%

Shakhter Karagandy at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shakhter Karagandy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

A. Nazymkhanov

25'

Y. Pertsukh

45+1'

A. Tanzharikov

46'

A. Kenesov← A. Niangbo

49'

A. Kenesov

63'

H. Vidémont← B. Baytana

66'

A. Tolordava

71'

M. Galkin← T. Chogadze

71'

R. Tutkyshev← A. Nazymkhanov

78'

A. Tattybaev← I. Sviridov

79'

A. Tanzharikov

79'

A. Tanzharikov

86'

Y. Kybyray← M. Samorodov

86'

D. Yashin← M. Raičković

87'

G. Zakharenko← Y. Pertsukh

87'

S. Fliuk← E. Ališauskas

Shakhter4-4-2

Aktobe4-2-3-1

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Soloshenko

71'▲M. Galkin←▼T. Chogadze

71'▲R. Tutkyshev←▼A. Nazymkhanov

78'▲A. Tattybaev←▼I. Sviridov

87'▲G. Zakharenko←▼Y. Pertsukh

87'▲S. Fliuk←▼E. Ališauskas

Shakhter Karagandy substitutes

GalkinTutkyshevTattybaevZakharenkoFliukAbdullaGorizanovBukoracZubaydildaKarpikovTiuliubayTsuprikov

Manager: A. Karpovich

46'▲A. Kenesov←▼A. Niangbo

63'▲H. Vidémont←▼B. Baytana

86'▲Y. Kybyray←▼M. Samorodov

86'▲D. Yashin←▼M. Raičković

Aktobe substitutes

KenesovVidémontKybyrayYashinZhumabekFilipovićUmaevLobantsev

Premier League: Shakhter Karagandy 0–1 Aktobe

Aktobe beat Shakhter Karagandy 1-0 in Premier League on July 15, 2023.

Goals: A. Kenesov (49').

The match was played at Stadion Shakhter in Karaganda.

Shakhter Karagandy vs Aktobe — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Premier League: Shakhter Karagandy 0–1 Aktobe