Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv — Premier League 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 9+ matches
Shakhtar Donetsk63%
Ruh Lviv15%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Shakhtar Donetsk creates 135% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 9 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Shakhtar Donetsk ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Shakhtar Donetsk at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches
Ruh Lviv away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.45 · 9 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.31 + Ruh Lviv defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.88
Ruh Lviv attack 0.92 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 63%?"
Shakhtar Donetsk at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 63% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Ruh Lviv substitutes
Shakhtar Donetsk
LNZ Cherkasy
Polessya
Dynamo Kyiv
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Kolos Kovalivka
Kryvbas KR
Zorya Luhansk
Karpaty
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Veres Rivne
Obolon'-Brovar
KudrivkaRuh Lviv
Oleksandria
SK PoltavaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Shakhtar Donetsk host Ruh Lviv on Sunday, 1 December 2024 at 16:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv
Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv drew 1-1 in Premier League on December 1, 2024.
Goals: M. Matviienko (23'), R. Didyk (90+2').
The match was played at Arena Lviv in Lviv.