Shakhtar Donetsk 0–0 Polessya: Result & Stats

Shakhtar Donetsk

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Polessya

11/24/2023

Premier League · Round 15Arena Lviv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk47%

×Draw24%

Polessya30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhtar DonetskExpected goals in this matchPolessya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.32

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.71

Polessya

1.32

Shakhtar Donetsk creates 30% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

2.31

creates per match

1.98

0.67

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.31

Polessya

1.98

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk

0.67

Polessya

1.10

+0.69scores more than expected

finishing

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.69scores more

Polessya-0.60scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk ↓

Polessya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk or draw

70%

Shakhtar Donetsk or Polessya

76%

Draw or Polessya

53%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+

25%

Polessya wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals

82%

Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals

51%

Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals

24%

Polessya 1+ goals

73%

Polessya 2+ goals

38%

Polessya 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)

61%

Polessya (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Polessya away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.10 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.31 + Polessya defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.71

Polessya attack 1.98 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more

47%

level

24%

Polessya scores more

30%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff