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Polessya vs Shakhtar Donetsk — Premier League 2019

Polessya
Polessya
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
12/15/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Tsentralnyi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Polessya35%
×Draw24%
Shakhtar Donetsk41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polessya
1.44
Shakhtar Donetsk
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Polessya
2.01
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.12

allows per match

Polessya
1.02
Shakhtar Donetsk
0.88

finishing

Polessya-0.46scores less
Shakhtar Donetsk+0.13scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polessya ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Polessya or draw
59%
Polessya or Shakhtar Donetsk
76%
Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk
65%

Winning margin

Polessya wins by 2+
16%
Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Polessya 1+ goals
76%
Polessya 2+ goals
42%
Polessya 3+ goals
18%
Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals
79%
Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals
46%
Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Polessya (draw refunded)
46%
Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polessya at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.02 · 11 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away — creates 2.12, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polessya attack 2.01 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.12 + Polessya defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Polessya scores more
35%
level
24%
Shakhtar Donetsk scores more
41%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Polessya 1–0 Shakhtar Donetsk

Polessya beat Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 in Premier League on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Zhytomyr.