Shakhtar Donetsk 2–0 Minai: Result & Stats

Shakhtar Donetsk

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Minai

3/12/2024

Premier League · Round 21Arena Lviv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk70%

×Draw19%

Minai11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhtar DonetskExpected goals in this matchMinai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.67

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.10

Minai

0.67

Shakhtar Donetsk creates 213% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 53 away

2.49

creates per match

0.60

0.74

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.49

Minai

0.60

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk

0.74

Minai

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.00on par

Minai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk ↓

Minai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk or draw

89%

Shakhtar Donetsk or Minai

81%

Draw or Minai

30%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+

45%

Minai wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals

88%

Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals

62%

Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals

35%

Minai 1+ goals

49%

Minai 2+ goals

15%

Minai 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)

87%

Minai (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk at home — creates 2.49, concedes 0.74 · 98 matches

Minai away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.72 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.49 + Minai defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.10

Minai attack 0.60 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more

70%

level

19%

Minai scores more

11%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff