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Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ludogorets — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
CANC
14:30
Ludogorets
Ludogorets
1/21/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Mardan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk56%
×Draw20%
Ludogorets24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhtar Donetsk
2.20
Ludogorets
1.38

Shakhtar Donetsk creates 59% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk
2.89
Ludogorets
1.75

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk
1.00
Ludogorets
1.50

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.00on par
Ludogorets+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk ↓

Ludogorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk or draw
76%
Shakhtar Donetsk or Ludogorets
80%
Draw or Ludogorets
44%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+
34%
Ludogorets wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals
89%
Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals
64%
Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals
37%
Ludogorets 1+ goals
75%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
40%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)
70%
Ludogorets (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk at home — creates 2.89, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.89 + Ludogorets defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.20

Ludogorets attack 1.75 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more
56%
level
20%
Ludogorets scores more
24%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Shakhtar Donetsk host Ludogorets

January 21, 2024: Shakhtar Donetsk take on Ludogorets in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Shakhtar Donetsk host Ludogorets at Mardan Stadyumu.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.