Shakhtar Donetsk 0–0 HNK Rijeka: Result & Stats

Shakhtar Donetsk

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

HNK Rijeka

12/18/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 6Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk40%

×Draw29%

HNK Rijeka31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhtar DonetskExpected goals in this matchHNK Rijeka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.03

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.22

HNK Rijeka

1.03

Shakhtar Donetsk creates 18% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

1.29

creates per match

0.92

1.14

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.29

HNK Rijeka

0.92

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.14

HNK Rijeka

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.00on par

HNK Rijeka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk ↓

HNK Rijeka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk or draw

69%

Shakhtar Donetsk or HNK Rijeka

71%

Draw or HNK Rijeka

60%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+

18%

HNK Rijeka wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals

70%

Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals

34%

Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals

12%

HNK Rijeka 1+ goals

64%

HNK Rijeka 2+ goals

28%

HNK Rijeka 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)

57%

HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

HNK Rijeka away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.29 + HNK Rijeka defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.22

HNK Rijeka attack 0.92 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more

40%

level

29%

HNK Rijeka scores more

31%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

M. Zlomislic

HNK Rijeka · G

8.9

Match Events

12'

Lucas Ferreira← Marlon Gomes

51'

55'

59'

66'

66'

B. Bogojevic← L. Menalo

72'

Stjepan Radeljić

78'

Merveil Ndockyt

83'

N. Jankovic← M. Ndockyt

83'

D. Cop← T. Fruk

84'

Luca Meirelles← Newerton

89'

D. Kryskiv← Pedrinho

89'

Isaque Silva← Eguinaldo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShakhtarHNK

Overview

64%Possession36%

9Total Shots4

0.43Expected Goals (xG)0.43

2Corners2

10Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots4

5On Target1

4Off Target3

0Blocked0

6Inside Box4

3Outside Box0

Passing

64%Possession36%

522Total Passes298

465Accurate Passes237

89%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

1.06Goals Prevented1.06

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

5Offsides1

Match Recap: Shakhtar Donetsk vs HNK Rijeka

Shakhtar Donetsk and HNK Rijeka drew 0-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on December 18, 2025.

Shakhtar Donetsk controlled possession (64%) and registered 9 shots to 4.

The match was played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Krakow.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs HNK Rijeka — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Shakhtar Donetsk vs HNK Rijeka