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Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Basel 1893 — UEFA Europa League 2026

Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetskadvanced
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
Dodo 88'
Alan Patrick 75' (pen)
Taison 22'
J. Moraes 2'
R. van Wolfswinkel 90+2'
8/11/2020UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Quarter-finalsVELTINS-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk60%
×Draw21%
FC Basel 189319%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhtar Donetsk
2.02
FC Basel 1893
1.04

Shakhtar Donetsk creates 94% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk
2.40
FC Basel 1893
1.27

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk
0.80
FC Basel 1893
1.64

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.00on par
FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk ↓

FC Basel 1893 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk or draw
81%
Shakhtar Donetsk or FC Basel 1893
79%
Draw or FC Basel 1893
40%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+
36%
FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals
87%
Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals
60%
Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals
33%
FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
65%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
28%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)
76%
FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.40 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.02

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.27 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more
60%
level
21%
FC Basel 1893 scores more
19%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
MarlosShakhtar DonetskShakhtar Donetsk · M
8.3

Match Events

2'
J. Moraes↳ Marlos
22'
Taison↳ Marlos
26'
F. Frei
53'
Alan Patrick
60'
T. Xhaka← Y. Marchand
64'
Arthur
72'
Marlos← M. Solomon
73'
Arthur← K. Ademi
73'
V. Stocker← R. van Wolfswinkel
73'
J. van der Werff← Ramires
75'
Alan PatrickPenalty
78'
Alan Patrick← V. Kovalenko
85'
M. Antonio← Maycon
85'
J. Moraes← Fernando
85'
Taison← Tete
87'
V. Bondar
88'
Dodo↳ Tete
90+2'
R. van Wolfswinkel↳ S. Campo

Possession

55%Shakhtar

Shots

15Shakhtar

Pass accuracy

51%Shakhtar

Statistics

ShakhtarFC
Overview
55%Possession45%
15Total Shots14
7Corners8
10Fouls17
Shots
15Total Shots14
8On Target2
5Off Target9
2Blocked3
10Inside Box11
5Outside Box3
Passing
55%Possession45%
514Total Passes406
457Accurate Passes345
89%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls17
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides5

UEFA Europa League: Shakhtar Donetsk 4–1 FC Basel 1893

Shakhtar Donetsk beat FC Basel 1893 4-1 in UEFA Europa League on August 11, 2020.

Goals: J. Moraes (2'), Taison (22'), Alan Patrick (75' pen), Dodo (88'), R. van Wolfswinkel (90+2').

Shakhtar Donetsk controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 14.

The match was played at VELTINS-Arena in Gelsenkirchen.