Shakhtar Donetsk 2–0 Breidablik: Result & Stats

Shakhtar Donetsk

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Breidablik

Kaua Elias 65'

A. Bondarenko 28'

11/6/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk45%

×Draw27%

Breidablik28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhtar DonetskExpected goals in this matchBreidablik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.06

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.43

Breidablik

1.06

Shakhtar Donetsk creates 35% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

0.79

creates per match

0.83

1.29

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk

0.79

Breidablik

0.83

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.29

Breidablik

2.07

+0.81scores more than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.81scores more

Breidablik-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk ↓

Breidablik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk or draw

72%

Shakhtar Donetsk or Breidablik

73%

Draw or Breidablik

55%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+

22%

Breidablik wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals

76%

Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals

42%

Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals

17%

Breidablik 1+ goals

65%

Breidablik 2+ goals

29%

Breidablik 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)

62%

Breidablik (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.29 · 5 matches

Breidablik away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.07 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 0.79 + Breidablik defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.43

Breidablik attack 0.83 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more

45%

level

27%

Breidablik scores more

28%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

A. Bondarenko

Shakhtar Donetsk · M

8.3

Match Events

28'

A. Bondarenko↳ Y. Nazaryna

63'

V. Einarsson← A. Jonsson

63'

O. Omarsson← D. Ingvarsson

63'

A. Bjarnason← T. Ulfarsson

64'

Viktor Karl Einarsson

65'

Kaua Elias↳ Isaque Silva

68'

A. Glushchenko← A. Bondarenko

69'

K. Steindorsson← H. Gunnlaugsson

75'

M. Shved← Luca Meirelles

79'

G. Hallsson← A. Ludviksson

90+4'

Óli Valur Ómarsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShakhtarBreidablik

Overview

74%Possession26%

16Total Shots5

1.21Expected Goals (xG)0.45

8Corners2

7Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots5

4On Target0

7Off Target4

5Blocked1

9Inside Box3

7Outside Box2

Passing

74%Possession26%

633Total Passes223

575Accurate Passes157

91%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

-1.59Goals Prevented-1.59

Discipline

7Fouls8

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0