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Shakhtar Donetsk vs Atalanta — UEFA Champions League 2026

Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Atalanta
Atalanta
12/11/2019UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 6Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk26%
×Draw22%
Atalanta52%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhtar Donetsk
1.30
Atalanta
1.92

Atalanta creates 48% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk
0.71
Atalanta
1.72

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk
2.12
Atalanta
1.89

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.00on par
Atalanta+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk ↓

Atalanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk or draw
48%
Shakhtar Donetsk or Atalanta
78%
Draw or Atalanta
74%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+
11%
Atalanta wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals
73%
Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals
37%
Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals
14%
Atalanta 1+ goals
85%
Atalanta 2+ goals
57%
Atalanta 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)
33%
Atalanta (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 0.71 + Atalanta defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.30

Atalanta attack 1.72 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more
26%
level
22%
Atalanta scores more
52%

Atalanta at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Atalanta

Atalanta beat Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 in UEFA Champions League on December 11, 2019.

The match was played at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist in Kharkiv.