Shakhtar Donetsk U19 4–2 Veres Rivne U19

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Veres Rivne U19

2/26/2026

U19 League · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk U1960%

×Draw21%

Veres Rivne U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhtar Donetsk U19Expected goals in this matchVeres Rivne U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.98

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

1.98

Veres Rivne U19

0.98

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 creates 102% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

2.73

creates per match

1.20

0.76

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

2.73

Veres Rivne U19

1.20

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

0.76

Veres Rivne U19

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk U19+0.00on par

Veres Rivne U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 ↓

Veres Rivne U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 or draw

82%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 or Veres Rivne U19

79%

Draw or Veres Rivne U19

40%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 wins by 2+

36%

Veres Rivne U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1+ goals

86%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 2+ goals

59%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 3+ goals

31%

Veres Rivne U19 1+ goals

62%

Veres Rivne U19 2+ goals

26%

Veres Rivne U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Veres Rivne U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.76 · 45 matches

Veres Rivne U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 attack 2.73 + Veres Rivne U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.98

Veres Rivne U19 attack 1.20 + Shakhtar Donetsk U19 defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 scores more

60%

level

21%

Veres Rivne U19 scores more

18%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff