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Shakhtar Donetsk U19 vs Kryvbas 2020 U19 — U19 League 2023

Shakhtar Donetsk U19
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kryvbas 2020 U19
Kryvbas 2020 U19
3/2/2024U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 19Kniazha-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk U1966%
×Draw18%
Kryvbas 2020 U1916%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhtar Donetsk U19
2.37
Kryvbas 2020 U19
1.07

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 creates 121% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk U19
2.73
Kryvbas 2020 U19
1.38

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk U19
0.76
Kryvbas 2020 U19
2.00

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk U19+0.00on par
Kryvbas 2020 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 ↓

Kryvbas 2020 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 or draw
84%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 or Kryvbas 2020 U19
82%
Draw or Kryvbas 2020 U19
34%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 wins by 2+
43%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1+ goals
91%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 2+ goals
68%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 3+ goals
42%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 1+ goals
66%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 2+ goals
29%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 (draw refunded)
81%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.76 · 45 matches

Kryvbas 2020 U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.00 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 attack 2.73 + Kryvbas 2020 U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.37

Kryvbas 2020 U19 attack 1.38 + Shakhtar Donetsk U19 defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 scores more
66%
level
18%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 scores more
16%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shakhtar Donetsk U19 vs Kryvbas 2020 U19

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 and Kryvbas 2020 U19 drew 1-1 in U19 League on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Kniazha-Arena in Shchaslyve.