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Shakhtar Donetsk U19 vs Dnipro-1 U19 — U19 League 2023

Shakhtar Donetsk U19
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
FT
4 – 1
Dnipro-1 U19
Dnipro-1 U19
11/12/2023U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 14Kniazha-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk U1955%
×Draw22%
Dnipro-1 U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhtar Donetsk U19
1.96
Dnipro-1 U19
1.21

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk U19
2.73
Dnipro-1 U19
1.67

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk U19
0.76
Dnipro-1 U19
1.20

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk U19+0.00on par
Dnipro-1 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 ↓

Dnipro-1 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 or draw
77%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 or Dnipro-1 U19
78%
Draw or Dnipro-1 U19
45%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 wins by 2+
32%
Dnipro-1 U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1+ goals
86%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 2+ goals
58%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 3+ goals
31%
Dnipro-1 U19 1+ goals
70%
Dnipro-1 U19 2+ goals
34%
Dnipro-1 U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 (draw refunded)
70%
Dnipro-1 U19 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.76 · 45 matches

Dnipro-1 U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 attack 2.73 + Dnipro-1 U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.96

Dnipro-1 U19 attack 1.67 + Shakhtar Donetsk U19 defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 scores more
55%
level
22%
Dnipro-1 U19 scores more
23%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shakhtar Donetsk U19 vs Dnipro-1 U19

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 beat Dnipro-1 U19 4-1 in U19 League on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Kniazha-Arena in Shchaslyve.