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Shaita vs Watanga — LFA First Division 2020

Shaita
Shaita
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Watanga
Watanga
4/17/2025LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 25TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Shaita28%
×Draw26%
Watanga47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shaita
1.11
Watanga
1.52

Watanga creates 37% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 74 away

creates per match

Shaita
1.46
Watanga
1.57

allows per match

Shaita
1.46
Watanga
0.77

finishing

Shaita+0.00on par
Watanga+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaita ↓

Watanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shaita or draw
53%
Shaita or Watanga
74%
Draw or Watanga
72%

Winning margin

Shaita wins by 2+
11%
Watanga wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Shaita 1+ goals
67%
Shaita 2+ goals
30%
Shaita 3+ goals
10%
Watanga 1+ goals
78%
Watanga 2+ goals
45%
Watanga 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Shaita (draw refunded)
37%
Watanga (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaita at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Watanga away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.77 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaita attack 1.46 + Watanga defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.11

Watanga attack 1.57 + Shaita defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shaita scores more
28%
level
26%
Watanga scores more
47%

Watanga at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Watanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Shaita 1–1 Watanga

Shaita and Watanga drew 1-1 in LFA First Division on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at TUSA Sport Field in Monrovia.