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Shaita vs Mighty Barrolle — LFA First Division 2020

Shaita
Shaita
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mighty Barrolle
Mighty Barrolle
11/24/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 10Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Shaita37%
×Draw25%
Mighty Barrolle38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shaita
1.44
Mighty Barrolle
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 61 away

creates per match

Shaita
1.46
Mighty Barrolle
1.48

allows per match

Shaita
1.46
Mighty Barrolle
1.41

finishing

Shaita+0.00on par
Mighty Barrolle+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaita ↓

Mighty Barrolle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Shaita or draw
62%
Shaita or Mighty Barrolle
75%
Draw or Mighty Barrolle
63%

Winning margin

Shaita wins by 2+
17%
Mighty Barrolle wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Shaita 1+ goals
76%
Shaita 2+ goals
42%
Shaita 3+ goals
18%
Mighty Barrolle 1+ goals
77%
Mighty Barrolle 2+ goals
43%
Mighty Barrolle 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Shaita (draw refunded)
49%
Mighty Barrolle (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaita at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Mighty Barrolle away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaita attack 1.46 + Mighty Barrolle defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Mighty Barrolle attack 1.48 + Shaita defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shaita scores more
37%
level
25%
Mighty Barrolle scores more
38%

Mighty Barrolle at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mighty Barrolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shaita vs Mighty Barrolle

Mighty Barrolle beat Shaita 1-0 in LFA First Division on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium in Kakata.