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Shaita vs Invincible Eleven — LFA First Division 2020

Shaita
Shaita
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Invincible Eleven
Invincible Eleven
A. Mabande 90+3'
O. Isco Kamara 63'
M. Blamo 32'
2/25/2025LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 20Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Shaita47%
×Draw25%
Invincible Eleven28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shaita
1.61
Invincible Eleven
1.18

Shaita creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 51 away

creates per match

Shaita
1.46
Invincible Eleven
0.90

allows per match

Shaita
1.46
Invincible Eleven
1.76

finishing

Shaita+0.00on par
Invincible Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaita ↓

Invincible Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Shaita or draw
72%
Shaita or Invincible Eleven
75%
Draw or Invincible Eleven
53%

Winning margin

Shaita wins by 2+
24%
Invincible Eleven wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shaita 1+ goals
80%
Shaita 2+ goals
48%
Shaita 3+ goals
22%
Invincible Eleven 1+ goals
69%
Invincible Eleven 2+ goals
33%
Invincible Eleven 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Shaita (draw refunded)
63%
Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaita at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Invincible Eleven away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaita attack 1.46 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.61

Invincible Eleven attack 0.90 + Shaita defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shaita scores more
47%
level
25%
Invincible Eleven scores more
28%

Shaita at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shaita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
M. Blamo
63'
O. Isco Kamara
90+3'
A. Mabande

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shaita vs Invincible Eleven

Shaita beat Invincible Eleven 3-0 in LFA First Division on February 25, 2025.

Goals: M. Blamo (32'), O. Isco Kamara (63'), A. Mabande (90+3').

The match was played at Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium in Kakata.