Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shaita vs Global Pharma — LFA First Division 2020

Shaita
Shaita
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Global Pharma
Global Pharma
2/14/2025LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 18TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Shaita46%
×Draw25%
Global Pharma29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shaita
1.55
Global Pharma
1.19

Shaita creates 30% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Shaita
1.46
Global Pharma
0.92

allows per match

Shaita
1.46
Global Pharma
1.65

finishing

Shaita+0.00on par
Global Pharma+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaita ↓

Global Pharma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Shaita or draw
71%
Shaita or Global Pharma
75%
Draw or Global Pharma
54%

Winning margin

Shaita wins by 2+
23%
Global Pharma wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Shaita 1+ goals
79%
Shaita 2+ goals
46%
Shaita 3+ goals
20%
Global Pharma 1+ goals
70%
Global Pharma 2+ goals
33%
Global Pharma 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Shaita (draw refunded)
61%
Global Pharma (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaita at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Global Pharma away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaita attack 1.46 + Global Pharma defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.55

Global Pharma attack 0.92 + Shaita defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shaita scores more
46%
level
25%
Global Pharma scores more
29%

Shaita at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shaita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Shaita 1–2 Global Pharma

Global Pharma beat Shaita 2-1 in LFA First Division on February 14, 2025.

The match was played at TUSA Sport Field in Monrovia.