Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shaita vs Freeport — LFA First Division 2020

Shaita
Shaita
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Freeport
Freeport
10/16/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 4Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Shaita41%
×Draw25%
Freeport34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shaita
1.54
Freeport
1.39

Shaita creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 75 away

creates per match

Shaita
1.46
Freeport
1.31

allows per match

Shaita
1.46
Freeport
1.61

finishing

Shaita+0.00on par
Freeport+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaita ↓

Freeport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Shaita or draw
66%
Shaita or Freeport
75%
Draw or Freeport
59%

Winning margin

Shaita wins by 2+
20%
Freeport wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Shaita 1+ goals
79%
Shaita 2+ goals
45%
Shaita 3+ goals
20%
Freeport 1+ goals
75%
Freeport 2+ goals
40%
Freeport 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Shaita (draw refunded)
54%
Freeport (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaita at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Freeport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.61 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaita attack 1.46 + Freeport defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.54

Freeport attack 1.31 + Shaita defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shaita scores more
41%
level
25%
Freeport scores more
34%

Shaita at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shaita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shaita vs Freeport

Freeport beat Shaita 2-0 in LFA First Division on October 16, 2024.

The match was played at Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium in Kakata.