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Shahre Raz vs Sanat Naft — Azadegan League 2018

Shahre Raz
Shahre Raz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sanat Naft
Sanat Naft
5/6/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 32Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shahre Raz32%
×Draw39%
Sanat Naft29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahre Raz
0.71
Sanat Naft
0.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Shahre Raz
0.88
Sanat Naft
0.59

allows per match

Shahre Raz
0.74
Sanat Naft
0.53

finishing

Shahre Raz+0.00on par
Sanat Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Under
  • Under84
  • Over16

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahre Raz ↓

Sanat Naft →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–025%
0–117%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (25%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
75%25%1.5
40%60%2.5
16%84%3.5
5%95%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Shahre Raz or draw
71%
Shahre Raz or Sanat Naft
61%
Draw or Sanat Naft
68%

Winning margin

Shahre Raz wins by 2+
9%
Sanat Naft wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shahre Raz 1+ goals
51%
Shahre Raz 2+ goals
16%
Shahre Raz 3+ goals
4%
Sanat Naft 1+ goals
49%
Sanat Naft 2+ goals
15%
Sanat Naft 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Shahre Raz (draw refunded)
52%
Sanat Naft (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahre Raz at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Sanat Naft away — creates 0.59, concedes 0.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahre Raz attack 0.88 + Sanat Naft defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.71

Sanat Naft attack 0.59 + Shahre Raz defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 32%?"

Shahre Raz scores more
32%
level
39%
Sanat Naft scores more
29%

Shahre Raz at 32% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 32% does not mean "Shahre Raz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahre Raz 1–0 Sanat Naft

Shahre Raz beat Sanat Naft 1-0 in Azadegan League on May 6, 2025.

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium in Shiraz.