Shahre Raz 0–1 Mes Shahr-e Babak: Result & Stats

Shahre Raz

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mes Shahr-e Babak

2/27/2024

Azadegan League · Round 21Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shahre Raz33%

×Draw36%

Mes Shahr-e Babak31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahre RazExpected goals in this matchMes Shahr-e Babak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

0.77

Shahre Raz

0.81

Mes Shahr-e Babak

0.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 85 away

0.88

creates per match

0.79

0.74

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Shahre Raz

0.88

Mes Shahr-e Babak

0.79

allows per match

Shahre Raz

0.74

Mes Shahr-e Babak

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahre Raz+0.00on par

Mes Shahr-e Babak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahre Raz ↓

Mes Shahr-e Babak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–116%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

47%53%2.5

21%79%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Shahre Raz or draw

69%

Shahre Raz or Mes Shahr-e Babak

64%

Draw or Mes Shahr-e Babak

67%

Winning margin

Shahre Raz wins by 2+

11%

Mes Shahr-e Babak wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Shahre Raz 1+ goals

56%

Shahre Raz 2+ goals

19%

Shahre Raz 3+ goals

5%

Mes Shahr-e Babak 1+ goals

54%

Mes Shahr-e Babak 2+ goals

18%

Mes Shahr-e Babak 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Shahre Raz (draw refunded)

52%

Mes Shahr-e Babak (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahre Raz at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Mes Shahr-e Babak away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.74 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahre Raz attack 0.88 + Mes Shahr-e Babak defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.81

Mes Shahr-e Babak attack 0.79 + Shahre Raz defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Shahre Raz scores more

33%

level

36%

Mes Shahr-e Babak scores more

31%

Shahre Raz at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Shahre Raz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff