Shahrdari Tabriz 1–3 SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

Shahrdari Tabriz

FT

1 – 3

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

7/18/2020

Azadegan League · Round 30Shahrdari Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Shahrdari Tabriz27%

×Draw27%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahrdari TabrizExpected goals in this matchSorkhPooshan Pakdasht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.41

Shahrdari Tabriz

1.00

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.41

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht creates 41% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

0.72

creates per match

1.25

1.56

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Shahrdari Tabriz

0.72

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.25

allows per match

Shahrdari Tabriz

1.56

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Tabriz ↓

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Shahrdari Tabriz or draw

54%

Shahrdari Tabriz or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

73%

Draw or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

73%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+

10%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals

63%

Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals

26%

Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals

8%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals

76%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals

41%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)

37%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Tabriz at home — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.72 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.00

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.25 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shahrdari Tabriz scores more

27%

level

27%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more

46%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SorkhPooshan Pakdasht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff