Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shahrdari Tabriz vs Sepidrood Rasht — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
FT
0 – 2
Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
9/15/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 5Shahrdari Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Shahrdari Tabriz38%
×Draw29%
Sepidrood Rasht33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Tabriz
1.16
Sepidrood Rasht
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 17 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
0.72
Sepidrood Rasht
0.59

allows per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
1.56
Sepidrood Rasht
1.59

finishing

Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par
Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Tabriz ↓

Sepidrood Rasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Shahrdari Tabriz or draw
67%
Shahrdari Tabriz or Sepidrood Rasht
71%
Draw or Sepidrood Rasht
62%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
16%
Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
69%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
32%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
11%
Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
66%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
29%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
53%
Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Tabriz at home — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Sepidrood Rasht away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.72 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.16

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.59 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
38%
level
29%
Sepidrood Rasht scores more
33%

Shahrdari Tabriz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shahrdari Tabriz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahrdari Tabriz 0–2 Sepidrood Rasht

Sepidrood Rasht beat Shahrdari Tabriz 2-0 in Azadegan League on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Shahrdari Complex in Tabriz.