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Shahrdari Tabriz vs Navad Urmia — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
FT
1 – 1
Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
9/7/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 4Bagh Shomal Stadium (Takhti) (Tabrīz (Tabriz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Shahrdari Tabriz32%
×Draw32%
Navad Urmia36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Tabriz
0.90
Navad Urmia
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 63 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
0.72
Navad Urmia
0.38

allows per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
1.56
Navad Urmia
1.08

finishing

Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par
Navad Urmia+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Tabriz ↓

Navad Urmia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Shahrdari Tabriz or draw
64%
Shahrdari Tabriz or Navad Urmia
68%
Draw or Navad Urmia
68%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
11%
Navad Urmia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
59%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
23%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
6%
Navad Urmia 1+ goals
62%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
25%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
47%
Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Tabriz at home — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Navad Urmia away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.72 + Navad Urmia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.90

Navad Urmia attack 0.38 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
32%
level
32%
Navad Urmia scores more
36%

Navad Urmia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Navad Urmia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahrdari Tabriz 1–1 Navad Urmia

Shahrdari Tabriz and Navad Urmia drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on September 7, 2018.

The match was played at Bagh Shomal Stadium (Takhti) (Tabrīz (Tabriz)).