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Shahrdari Tabriz vs Khooneh Be Khooneh — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
FT
1 – 0
Khooneh Be Khooneh
Khooneh Be Khooneh
9/30/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 6Bagh Shomal Stadium (Takhti) (Tabrīz (Tabriz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Shahrdari Tabriz34%
×Draw31%
Khooneh Be Khooneh35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Tabriz
0.98
Khooneh Be Khooneh
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 16 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
0.72
Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.44

allows per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
1.56
Khooneh Be Khooneh
1.25

finishing

Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par
Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Tabriz ↓

Khooneh Be Khooneh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Shahrdari Tabriz or draw
65%
Shahrdari Tabriz or Khooneh Be Khooneh
69%
Draw or Khooneh Be Khooneh
66%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
13%
Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
62%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
26%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
8%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals
63%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals
26%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
49%
Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Tabriz at home — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.72 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.98

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 0.44 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
34%
level
31%
Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more
35%

Khooneh Be Khooneh at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Khooneh Be Khooneh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahrdari Tabriz 1–0 Khooneh Be Khooneh

Shahrdari Tabriz beat Khooneh Be Khooneh 1-0 in Azadegan League on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Bagh Shomal Stadium (Takhti) (Tabrīz (Tabriz)).