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Shahrdari Noshahr vs Shahre Raz — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Noshahr
Shahrdari Noshahr
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shahre Raz
Shahre Raz
2/6/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 20Shohada Tajan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Shahrdari Noshahr48%
×Draw31%
Shahre Raz22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Noshahr
1.18
Shahre Raz
0.69

Shahrdari Noshahr creates 71% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Noshahr
1.09
Shahre Raz
0.65

allows per match

Shahrdari Noshahr
0.73
Shahre Raz
1.26

finishing

Shahrdari Noshahr+0.00on par
Shahre Raz+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Noshahr ↓

Shahre Raz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Shahrdari Noshahr or draw
78%
Shahrdari Noshahr or Shahre Raz
69%
Draw or Shahre Raz
52%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Noshahr wins by 2+
21%
Shahre Raz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shahrdari Noshahr 1+ goals
69%
Shahrdari Noshahr 2+ goals
33%
Shahrdari Noshahr 3+ goals
12%
Shahre Raz 1+ goals
50%
Shahre Raz 2+ goals
15%
Shahre Raz 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Noshahr (draw refunded)
69%
Shahre Raz (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Noshahr at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.73 · 33 matches

Shahre Raz away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Noshahr attack 1.09 + Shahre Raz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Shahre Raz attack 0.65 + Shahrdari Noshahr defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shahrdari Noshahr scores more
48%
level
31%
Shahre Raz scores more
22%

Shahrdari Noshahr at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shahrdari Noshahr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahrdari Noshahr 2–0 Shahre Raz

Shahrdari Noshahr beat Shahre Raz 2-0 in Azadegan League on February 6, 2025.

The match was played at Shohada Tajan Stadium in Chalus.