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Shahrdari Noshahr vs Shahrdari Astara — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Noshahr
Shahrdari Noshahr
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
H. S. Eslami 79'
Unknown 71'
3/4/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 24Shohada Tajan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Shahrdari Noshahr58%
×Draw28%
Shahrdari Astara15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Noshahr
1.40
Shahrdari Astara
0.56

Shahrdari Noshahr creates 150% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 84 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Noshahr
1.09
Shahrdari Astara
0.40

allows per match

Shahrdari Noshahr
0.73
Shahrdari Astara
1.71

finishing

Shahrdari Noshahr+0.00on par
Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Noshahr ↓

Shahrdari Astara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Shahrdari Noshahr or draw
85%
Shahrdari Noshahr or Shahrdari Astara
72%
Draw or Shahrdari Astara
42%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Noshahr wins by 2+
29%
Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Shahrdari Noshahr 1+ goals
75%
Shahrdari Noshahr 2+ goals
41%
Shahrdari Noshahr 3+ goals
17%
Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
43%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
11%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Noshahr (draw refunded)
80%
Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Noshahr at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.73 · 33 matches

Shahrdari Astara away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.71 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Noshahr attack 1.09 + Shahrdari Astara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.40

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.40 + Shahrdari Noshahr defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Shahrdari Noshahr scores more
58%
level
28%
Shahrdari Astara scores more
15%

Shahrdari Noshahr at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Shahrdari Noshahr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'
79'
H. S. Eslami

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahrdari Noshahr vs Shahrdari Astara

Shahrdari Noshahr beat Shahrdari Astara 2-0 in Azadegan League on March 4, 2025.

Goals: ? (71'), H. S. Eslami (79').

The match was played at Shohada Tajan Stadium in Chalus.