Shahrdari Noshahr 0–0 Mes Soongoun: Result & Stats

Shahrdari Noshahr

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mes Soongoun

4/11/2025

Azadegan League · Round 28Shohada Tajan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Shahrdari Noshahr24%

×Draw46%

Mes Soongoun30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahrdari NoshahrExpected goals in this matchMes Soongoun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.46

0.55

Shahrdari Noshahr

0.46

Mes Soongoun

0.55

Mes Soongoun creates 20% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

0.43

creates per match

0.25

0.86

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Shahrdari Noshahr

0.43

Mes Soongoun

0.25

allows per match

Shahrdari Noshahr

0.86

Mes Soongoun

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahrdari Noshahr+0.00on par

Mes Soongoun+0.00on par

Total goals

Under92
Over8

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No84
Yes16

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Noshahr ↓

Mes Soongoun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–036%

0–120%

0–26%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–19%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–04%

2–12%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (36%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

64%36%1.5

27%73%2.5

8%92%3.5

2%98%4.5

0%100%

Double chance

Shahrdari Noshahr or draw

70%

Shahrdari Noshahr or Mes Soongoun

54%

Draw or Mes Soongoun

76%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Noshahr wins by 2+

5%

Mes Soongoun wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Shahrdari Noshahr 1+ goals

37%

Shahrdari Noshahr 2+ goals

8%

Shahrdari Noshahr 3+ goals

1%

Mes Soongoun 1+ goals

42%

Mes Soongoun 2+ goals

11%

Mes Soongoun 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Noshahr (draw refunded)

44%

Mes Soongoun (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

6%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Noshahr at home — creates 0.43, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Mes Soongoun away — creates 0.25, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Noshahr attack 0.43 + Mes Soongoun defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.46

Mes Soongoun attack 0.25 + Shahrdari Noshahr defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 30%?"

Shahrdari Noshahr scores more

24%

level

46%

Mes Soongoun scores more

30%

Mes Soongoun at 30% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 30% does not mean "Mes Soongoun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff