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Shahrdari Mahshahr vs Qashqai Shiraz — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Mahshahr
Shahrdari Mahshahr
FT
1 – 2
Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
2/7/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 22Shohada Mahshahr (Mahshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shahrdari Mahshahr37%
×Draw32%
Qashqai Shiraz31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Mahshahr
1.00
Qashqai Shiraz
0.89

Shahrdari Mahshahr creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 69 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.67
Qashqai Shiraz
0.84

allows per match

Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.93
Qashqai Shiraz
1.33

finishing

Shahrdari Mahshahr+0.00on par
Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Mahshahr ↓

Qashqai Shiraz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Shahrdari Mahshahr or draw
69%
Shahrdari Mahshahr or Qashqai Shiraz
68%
Draw or Qashqai Shiraz
63%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Mahshahr wins by 2+
14%
Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shahrdari Mahshahr 1+ goals
63%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 2+ goals
26%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 3+ goals
8%
Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
59%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
22%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Mahshahr (draw refunded)
54%
Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Mahshahr at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Qashqai Shiraz away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.33 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Mahshahr attack 0.67 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.84 + Shahrdari Mahshahr defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shahrdari Mahshahr scores more
37%
level
32%
Qashqai Shiraz scores more
31%

Shahrdari Mahshahr at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shahrdari Mahshahr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahrdari Mahshahr 1–2 Qashqai Shiraz

Qashqai Shiraz beat Shahrdari Mahshahr 2-1 in Azadegan League on February 7, 2019.

The match was played at Shohada Mahshahr (Mahshahr).