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Shahrdari Mahshahr vs Oxin Alborz — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Mahshahr
Shahrdari Mahshahr
FT
0 – 1
Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
8/19/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 2Shohada Mahshahr (Mahshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shahrdari Mahshahr42%
×Draw31%
Oxin Alborz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Mahshahr
1.12
Oxin Alborz
0.83

Shahrdari Mahshahr creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 49 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.67
Oxin Alborz
0.73

allows per match

Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.93
Oxin Alborz
1.57

finishing

Shahrdari Mahshahr+0.00on par
Oxin Alborz+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Mahshahr ↓

Oxin Alborz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Shahrdari Mahshahr or draw
73%
Shahrdari Mahshahr or Oxin Alborz
69%
Draw or Oxin Alborz
58%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Mahshahr wins by 2+
18%
Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Shahrdari Mahshahr 1+ goals
67%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 2+ goals
31%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 3+ goals
10%
Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
56%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
20%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Mahshahr (draw refunded)
61%
Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Mahshahr at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Oxin Alborz away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Mahshahr attack 0.67 + Oxin Alborz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.12

Oxin Alborz attack 0.73 + Shahrdari Mahshahr defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shahrdari Mahshahr scores more
42%
level
31%
Oxin Alborz scores more
27%

Shahrdari Mahshahr at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shahrdari Mahshahr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahrdari Mahshahr 0–1 Oxin Alborz

Oxin Alborz beat Shahrdari Mahshahr 1-0 in Azadegan League on August 19, 2018.

The match was played at Shohada Mahshahr (Mahshahr).