Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shahrdari Mahshahr vs Aluminium Arak — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Mahshahr
Shahrdari Mahshahr
FT
0 – 2
Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
9/7/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 4Shohada Mahshahr (Mahshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shahrdari Mahshahr30%
×Draw37%
Aluminium Arak34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.72
Aluminium Arak
0.79

Aluminium Arak creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 31 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.67
Aluminium Arak
0.65

allows per match

Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.93
Aluminium Arak
0.77

finishing

Shahrdari Mahshahr+0.00on par
Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Mahshahr ↓

Aluminium Arak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–117%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
19%81%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Shahrdari Mahshahr or draw
66%
Shahrdari Mahshahr or Aluminium Arak
63%
Draw or Aluminium Arak
70%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Mahshahr wins by 2+
9%
Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shahrdari Mahshahr 1+ goals
51%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 2+ goals
16%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 3+ goals
4%
Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
55%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
19%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Mahshahr (draw refunded)
47%
Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Mahshahr at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.65, concedes 0.77 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Mahshahr attack 0.67 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.72

Aluminium Arak attack 0.65 + Shahrdari Mahshahr defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Shahrdari Mahshahr scores more
30%
level
37%
Aluminium Arak scores more
34%

Aluminium Arak at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahrdari Mahshahr vs Aluminium Arak

Aluminium Arak beat Shahrdari Mahshahr 2-0 in Azadegan League on September 7, 2018.

The match was played at Shohada Mahshahr (Mahshahr).