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Shahrdari Hamedan vs Vista Turbine — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Hamedan
Shahrdari Hamedan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vista Turbine
Vista Turbine
4/28/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 27Haji Babaei Martyr Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Shahrdari Hamedan48%
×Draw33%
Vista Turbine19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Hamedan
1.07
Vista Turbine
0.56

Shahrdari Hamedan creates 91% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.97
Vista Turbine
0.47

allows per match

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.65
Vista Turbine
1.18

finishing

Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par
Vista Turbine+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Hamedan ↓

Vista Turbine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Shahrdari Hamedan or draw
81%
Shahrdari Hamedan or Vista Turbine
67%
Draw or Vista Turbine
52%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+
20%
Vista Turbine wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals
66%
Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals
29%
Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals
9%
Vista Turbine 1+ goals
43%
Vista Turbine 2+ goals
11%
Vista Turbine 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)
71%
Vista Turbine (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Hamedan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Vista Turbine away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.97 + Vista Turbine defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.07

Vista Turbine attack 0.47 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shahrdari Hamedan scores more
48%
level
33%
Vista Turbine scores more
19%

Shahrdari Hamedan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shahrdari Hamedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahrdari Hamedan vs Vista Turbine

Shahrdari Hamedan beat Vista Turbine 2-0 in Azadegan League on April 28, 2022.

The match was played at Haji Babaei Martyr Sports Complex in Hamedān.