Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shahrdari Hamedan vs Shahrdari Astara — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Hamedan
Shahrdari Hamedan
FT
1 – 1
Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
12/8/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 9Ghods Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shahrdari Hamedan57%
×Draw28%
Shahrdari Astara15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Hamedan
1.34
Shahrdari Astara
0.53

Shahrdari Hamedan creates 153% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 84 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.97
Shahrdari Astara
0.40

allows per match

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.65
Shahrdari Astara
1.71

finishing

Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par
Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Hamedan ↓

Shahrdari Astara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Shahrdari Hamedan or draw
85%
Shahrdari Hamedan or Shahrdari Astara
72%
Draw or Shahrdari Astara
43%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+
28%
Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals
74%
Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals
39%
Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals
15%
Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
41%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
10%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)
79%
Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Hamedan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Shahrdari Astara away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.71 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.97 + Shahrdari Astara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.34

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.40 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Shahrdari Hamedan scores more
57%
level
28%
Shahrdari Astara scores more
15%

Shahrdari Hamedan at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shahrdari Hamedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahrdari Hamedan vs Shahrdari Astara

Shahrdari Hamedan and Shahrdari Astara drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on December 8, 2021.

The match was played at Ghods Stadium in Hamedān.