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Shahrdari Hamedan vs Rayka Babol — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Hamedan
Shahrdari Hamedan
FT
3 – 0
Rayka Babol
Rayka Babol
11/12/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 5Haji Babaei Martyr Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shahrdari Hamedan46%
×Draw31%
Rayka Babol23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Hamedan
1.17
Rayka Babol
0.73

Shahrdari Hamedan creates 60% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.97
Rayka Babol
0.80

allows per match

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.65
Rayka Babol
1.37

finishing

Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par
Rayka Babol+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Hamedan ↓

Rayka Babol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Shahrdari Hamedan or draw
77%
Shahrdari Hamedan or Rayka Babol
69%
Draw or Rayka Babol
54%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+
20%
Rayka Babol wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals
69%
Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals
33%
Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals
11%
Rayka Babol 1+ goals
52%
Rayka Babol 2+ goals
17%
Rayka Babol 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)
67%
Rayka Babol (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Hamedan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Rayka Babol away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.37 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.97 + Rayka Babol defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.17

Rayka Babol attack 0.80 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shahrdari Hamedan scores more
46%
level
31%
Rayka Babol scores more
23%

Shahrdari Hamedan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shahrdari Hamedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahrdari Hamedan vs Rayka Babol

Shahrdari Hamedan beat Rayka Babol 3-0 in Azadegan League on November 12, 2021.

The match was played at Haji Babaei Martyr Sports Complex in Hamedān.